Oil Jumps 5% on Mideast Tensions as NY Stocks Slip
As of 2026-10-09 00:00 SGT
Key points
- WTI crude surged above the prior session's high of $90.98 to $92.88 (+5.21%) as Iran stepped up tanker attacks and Houthi forces struck Riyadh's King Khalid airport twice, deepening Gulf supply concerns
- The S&P 500 slid mid-session as Treasury yields kept climbing and oil jumped, with Dow futures at 51,244 (-0.40%); Fed Governor Waller said more rate hikes are needed, though the timing remains flexible
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.294% (+1.7bp) as investors braced for a 30-year auction
- Asian benchmarks finished lower into the pressure: the Nikkei 225 ended at 69,042 (-1.42%), slipping back under the 70,000 level, while the Hang Seng finished at 23,786 (-2.04%)
- Canada's employment report and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey are due later today
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 158.32 | +0.18% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1194 | -0.04% |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 69,042 | -1.42% |
| Hang Seng (close) | 23,786 | -2.04% |
| Dow futures | 51,244 | -0.40% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,823.75 | -0.37% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 31,211 | -0.61% |
| Gold futures | 4,137.70 | -0.07% |
| WTI crude | 92.88 | +5.21% |
| Bitcoin | 81,001 | -2.73% |
| US 10-yr yield | 5.294% | +1.7bp |
Foreign exchange — dollar firm, yen capped
USD/JPY held firm at 158.32 (+0.18%), within the prior session's 157.57-158.37 range, as the dollar stayed bid on rising Treasury yields and Waller's hawkish remarks. EUR/USD eased to 1.1194 (-0.04%), near its prior-day low of 1.1176, with France's fiscal and political risks still weighing on the single currency. Through the rest of the NY session, further dollar buying could push USD/JPY above the prior session's 158.37 high toward the upper 158s.
Equities — pressured by oil and yields
The S&P 500 slid as Treasury yields continued their climb and oil jumped, CNBC reported, with Dow futures at 51,244 (-0.40%) and Nasdaq 100 futures off 0.61% mid-session. European markets were broadly weaker in the same risk-off tone. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 ended at 69,042 (-1.42%), back below the 70,000 mark, while the Hang Seng finished at 23,786 (-2.04%). Into the rest of the NY session, a further rise in yields above 5.294% could extend Dow futures' pullback from 51,244.
Macro — Fed stays hawkish, yields climb
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.294% (+1.7bp) as Fed Governor Waller said more hikes are needed to contain inflation, though he flagged flexibility on timing. Weekly jobless claims eased modestly to a level last seen in July, the Guardian noted, though layoffs remain limited. Early in the Asian session, a 10-year yield above 5.294% and further Fed commentary are likely to stay in focus.
Commodities — crude extends its surge
WTI crude broke above the prior session's high of $90.98 to trade at $92.88 (+5.21%), extending gains as Iran escalated tanker attacks and hurricane risk threatened U.S. Gulf production, CNBC reported. Gold futures were little changed at $4,137.70 (-0.07%), within the prior day's $4,091.20-4,197.80 range. Ahead of the Tokyo open, further escalation risk could keep crude bid above $92.88.
Geopolitics — Mideast escalation drives oil
Iran stepped up tanker attacks and Houthi forces struck Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport with ballistic missiles twice, also hitting Najran airport and an air base at Khamis Mushait, according to wire reports; Saudi officials had not immediately confirmed the strikes. Iran's IRGC commander warned that no outside power has the right to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump's former defense secretaries said the next U.S. administration could inherit the Iran conflict. Unless tensions ease, the risk premium in oil is likely to persist.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 20:30 | CA | Employment Change (forecast 6.3K) | Watch for signs of labor market momentum |
| 10/09 20:30 | CA | Unemployment Rate (forecast 6.5%) | Gauge of labor market slack |
| 10/09 22:00 | US | UoM Consumer Sentiment (forecast 47.5) | Read on US consumer resilience |
| 10/09 22:00 | US | UoM Inflation Expectations | Short-term inflation expectations in focus |