Week Ahead: Xi-Trump Summit and SNB Decision Loom
As of 2026-09-20 17:00 SGT
Key points
- The Fed hiked for the first time in three years, and the BOJ followed on Sept 18 with a 25bp hike to 1.25%, a 31-year high. Fed Chair Warsh reportedly framed the move as merely "taking off one dose of easing," keeping the door open to more hikes
- USD/JPY spiked toward the 158 handle after the BOJ decision before reversing sharply once a Japan MOF/BOJ rate check was reported, closing the week at 156.85 (+0.58%, prior-day high 158.00 / low 156.12)
- The Dow fell 95 points Friday (-0.18%) and posted its worst week since March as Treasury yields rose, while the Nasdaq extended gains on AI optimism. The Nikkei 225 jumped 1.38% to 65,019 at the close
- The US 10-yr yield rose to 4.998% (+5.1bp), closing in on 5%. WTI crude extended its slide to $96.08, breaking below Thursday's $99.10 low, while gold futures held firm near $4,424.90
- Next week brings the Xi-Trump summit on Sept 24, plus Australian jobs data, the SNB rate decision, and flash PMIs from the euro area and UK. Japan's market is closed Monday for a holiday
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 156.85 | +0.58% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1490 | +0.09% |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 65,019 | +1.38% |
| Hang Seng (close) | 24,751 | +0.15% |
| Bitcoin | 80,221 | -1.24% |
| US 10-yr yield | 4.998% | +5.1bp |
Foreign exchange — yen capped by intervention risk, thin holiday liquidity
USD/JPY whipsawed after the BOJ hike, briefly touching the 158 handle before a reported Japan MOF/BOJ rate check triggered a sharp reversal. The pair closed out the week at 156.85 (+0.58%, prior-day high 158.00 / low 156.12). EUR/USD was little changed at 1.1490 (+0.09%, high 1.1494 / low 1.1456). With Japan's market shut Monday for a holiday, liquidity is expected to be thin, and some desks flagged renewed downside risk for the yen. Into next week, USD/JPY is likely to trade around the high-156s ahead of the Sept 24 Xi-Trump summit and the SNB decision.
Equities — Nikkei surges into the weekend, US stocks pressured by yields
The Nikkei 225 jumped 1.38% to close the week at 65,019. US stocks were mixed: the Dow fell 95 points (-0.18%) and posted its worst week since March, while the Nasdaq extended gains on AI-related optimism. The Hang Seng edged up 0.15% to 24,751. Warren Buffett announced he is stepping down as Berkshire Hathaway's chairman. Next week, attention shifts to China- and Taiwan-exposed names ahead of the Xi-Trump summit as the post-FOMC/BOJ dust settles.
Macro — US and Japan both hiked; SNB and Australian jobs data up next
The Fed hiked for the first time in three years, and the dot plot signals one more hike before year-end. Chair Warsh reportedly described the move as merely "taking off one dose of easing," fueling speculation over how many more hikes are coming. The BOJ followed on Sept 18 with a 25bp hike to 1.25%, a 31-year high. The US 10-yr yield rose to 4.998% (+5.1bp), closing in on 5%. Next week the Swiss National Bank announces its policy rate (forecast 0.00%) on Sept 24, Australian employment and unemployment data land the same day, and flash PMIs from Germany, France and the UK are due Sept 23. With the Fed and BOJ hikes now digested, next week's central-bank calendar should keep rate-differential trades in focus.
Commodities — crude extends its slide, gold holds firm
WTI crude extended its slide to $96.08, breaking below Thursday's $99.10 low (prior-day high $102.47), as Middle East supply concerns eased. Gold futures held firm near $4,424.90, above Thursday's $4,423.30 high. Bitcoin was soft at $80,221 (-1.24%). Into next week, easing Middle East supply concerns should keep a lid on crude, while gold looks well-supported.
Geopolitics — Middle East tensions persist, Xi-Trump summit also in focus
Iran's parliament speaker said Tehran has set conditions for renewed talks and that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until its demands are met. Yemen's Houthis were reported to have attacked Saudi Arabia again, prompting a US warning to citizens in the Middle East. North Korea fired a short-range ballistic missile that reportedly fell outside Japan's exclusive economic zone. The Xi-Trump summit is set for Sept 24, with China tariffs and Taiwan arms sales expected on the agenda. Middle East tensions and the outcome of the Xi-Trump summit look set to be the key swing factors for risk sentiment into next week.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/22 11:10 | AU | RBA Gov Bullock Speaks | RBA governor's remarks may offer clues on the policy stance, key for AUD |
| 09/23 15:30 | EU | German Flash Manufacturing PMI (forecast 54.0) | Leading gauge of euro-area activity, tests Germany's manufacturing recovery |
| 09/24 09:30 | AU | Employment Change (forecast 20.9K) | Signals labor-market strength, directly moves AUD and RBA rate-path bets |
| 09/24 09:30 | AU | Unemployment Rate (forecast 4.5%) | Read alongside jobs data for the RBA's hold-vs-hike calculus |
| 09/24 15:30 | CH | SNB Policy Rate (forecast 0.00%) | Watch whether the SNB holds steady amid the global hiking cycle |
| 09/25 22:00 | US | UoM Consumer Sentiment (forecast 47.5) | Gauges US consumer mood into the weekend, feeds into Fed rate-path views |