Russian Diesel Deal Lifts Stocks; TSMC, Bank Earnings Next
As of 2026-10-10 07:00 SGT
Key points
- Russia's pledge to ramp up diesel exports — 300,000 tons in October, 500,000 in November and 1 million in December to the US and global markets, discussed in a Trump-Putin call — helped ease fuel-shortage fears and drove a risk-on finish to the week. The Dow gained 423.31 points on Friday, and the S&P 500 added 1.15% for the week while the Nasdaq notched its fourth straight weekly gain.
- The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 5.2378% (+1.1bp on the day, -3.28bp on the week) after touching 5.3624% intraweek on Oct 7, within striking distance of the 2002 high of 5.4730%.
- The University of Michigan's preliminary October consumer sentiment reading came in at 46.3, below the 47.8 expected, as one-year inflation expectations hit their highest since May 2023; the New York Fed said much of the inflation in everyday goods traces directly to tariffs.
- USD/JPY held in the low-158s, closing Friday at 158.25 (+0.29%). BOJ Governor Ueda signaled he intends to keep raising rates while watching upside inflation risk, and Japan's newly issued 10-year JGB coupon climbed to 3.1%, its highest in roughly three decades.
- Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz surged to a wartime-high pace, though Trump said the US won't strike Iran before November's midterms. Next week's focus shifts to TSMC's earnings call (Oct 15) and the start of big-bank Q3 reporting.
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 158.25 | +0.29% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1206 | -0.09% |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 69,031 | -0.02% |
| Hang Seng (close) | 24,211 | +0.34% |
| Dow futures | 51,976 | +0.94% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,866.00 | +0.64% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 31,123 | +0.50% |
| Gold futures | 4,220.30 | +1.52% |
| WTI crude | 91.66 | +0.19% |
| Bitcoin | 82,549 | +1.05% |
| US 10-yr yield | 5.244% | +1.3bp |
Foreign exchange — USD/JPY steady in the low-158s, CPI week ahead
USD/JPY held a tight range into the weekend, closing Friday at 158.25 (+0.29%), with the prior-day range at 157.76-158.42. EUR/USD slipped modestly to 1.1206 (-0.09%) as France's fiscal and bond-market troubles kept the euro on the back foot. With the US bond market shut for Columbus Day on Oct 12 and CPI, PPI and retail sales all due next week, USD/JPY looks set to keep trading either side of 158 for now.
Equities — Wall Street extends its run, TSMC and bank earnings next up
The Dow rose 423.31 points on Friday on buying in tech names and earnings optimism, capping a week in which the S&P 500 gained 1.15% and the Nasdaq logged its fourth consecutive weekly advance. The Nikkei 225 finished at 69,031 (-0.02%), having briefly reclaimed the 70,000 level this week on a four-day win streak before profit-taking pulled it back. Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed at 24,211 (+0.34%), with tech leading — Xiaomi jumped nearly 10% — while HSBC, Standard Chartered and AIA rebounded as Treasury yields eased, and US-listed Chinese names including Alibaba climbed more than 5%. TSMC's earnings call on Oct 15 and the start of big US bank reporting next week should set the tone for AI and financial-sector sentiment alike.
Macro — Yields steady into the weekend, inflation-expectations risk builds
The 10-year Treasury yield settled Friday at 5.2378% (+1.1bp), down 3.28bp for the week after touching 5.3624% on Oct 7, near the 2002 peak of 5.4730%; the 2-year closed at 4.7869% (+2.93bp). The University of Michigan's preliminary October sentiment reading fell to 46.3, missing the 47.8 estimate, with one-year inflation expectations at their highest since May 2023; the New York Fed flagged tariffs as the driver behind much of the price pressure in everyday goods. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said more policy firming will be required. In Tokyo, BOJ Governor Ueda signaled he'll keep raising rates while watching upside inflation risk, and Japan's newly issued 10-year JGB coupon rose to 3.1%, its highest in about three decades. China and the EU also agreed to cut Chinese hybrid-vehicle exports to Europe by half. Next week's CPI and PPI prints are the next test of whether the inflation-expectations scare has legs.
Commodities — Diesel diplomacy and a hurricane keep crude and gold firm
WTI settled at $91.66 (+0.19%). Hurricane Isaias knocked out more than 70% of US Gulf of Mexico oil output — roughly 1.46 million barrels a day — with workers evacuated from 129 platforms, even as Russia's diesel-export plan (300,000 tons in October, rising to 1 million by December) and Germany's plan to release 15 million barrels from strategic reserves, prioritizing diesel and heating oil, took some of the edge off fuel-shortage fears. Gold futures closed at $4,220.30 (+1.52%), with COMEX gold up 1.41% for the week, silver up 2.79% on the day (+0.77% weekly) and copper up 2.16% (+2.03% weekly). PIMCO CIO Dan Ivascyn warned the 10-year Treasury yield could reach 6% — a level not seen in roughly 26 years — under the combined pressure of high oil prices, inflation and fiscal concerns. Next week, how fast Russian diesel actually reaches the market and how quickly Gulf output recovers should drive crude's next move.
Geopolitics — Hormuz tensions simmer as Russian energy diplomacy advances
Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have surged to a wartime-high pace as Iran is reported to be trying to choke off oil exports through the waterway. The Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed 136 Houthi military targets in Yemen as part of a broader campaign. Trump said the US won't strike Iran before November's midterms. Trump and Putin held a roughly 90-minute call covering the war in Ukraine, the Iran situation and a large economic initiative tied to Russian fuel supply; separately, US, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators held a six-hour session in Miami aimed at drafting a unified proposal to end the war, with officials hoping for an agreement within weeks. The UK government said it will keep up what it called its toughest-ever sanctions regime on Russia. Heading into next week, the pace of the Hormuz tensions and the follow-through on Russian energy diplomacy should keep driving risk appetite.
Upcoming events
| Date (SGT) | Region | Event | Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | US/Canada | Columbus Day (US bond market closed) / Canadian Thanksgiving | Thin liquidity in rates markets |
| Oct 12-16 | US/UK/Australia | CPI, PPI, retail sales (US); GDP (UK); jobs data (Australia) | Key test for the rate-cut narrative into year-end |
| Oct 12-16 | US | Big banks kick off Q3 earnings season | Sets the tone for financial-sector sentiment |
| Oct 15 | Taiwan | TSMC earnings call (Q3) | AI demand guidance is a swing factor for chip stocks |