NFP（U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls）

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a key economic indicator that tracks employment trends in the United States. It is one of the most closely watched data points in financial markets, as it provides insights into the overall health of the U.S. labor market.

This article explains what the NFP report is, its release schedule, why it matters, and other key details.

1: What is U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)?

Definition of Non-Farm Payrolls

The NFP report, published monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor, is a critical measure of employment conditions in the country.

As the U.S. economy plays a central role in global finance and the U.S. dollar serves as the world's primary reserve currency, labor market conditions—including employment and unemployment trends—are key indicators of economic strength.

The report has a significant impact on financial markets, making it a crucial data point for traders and investors.

The NFP report includes over ten key data points, with "Non-Farm Payroll Employment" and "Unemployment Rate" being the most important.

NFP Release Schedule for 2025

The NFP data is generally released on the first Friday of each month.

Below is the release schedule for 2025 (times are in U.S. Eastern Time, adjusted for daylight saving time where applicable):

Reporting Month	Release Date & Time (ET)
January 2025	February 7 (08:30)
February 2025	March 7 (08:30)
March 2025	April 4 (08:30)
April 2025	May 2 (08:30)
May 2025	June 6 (08:30)
June 2025	July 3 (08:30)
July 2025	August 1 (08:30)
August 2025	September 5 (08:30)
September 2025	October 3 (08:30)
October 2025	November 7 (08:30)
November 2025	December 5 (08:30)

2: Differences Between the Household Survey and Establishment Survey

The NFP report is compiled from two separate surveys: the Household Survey and the Establishment Survey. The key differences between them are as follows:

Category	Household Survey (CPS)	Establishment Survey (CES)
Data Source	Current Population Survey	Current Employment Statistics
Survey Scope	Monthly survey of ~60,000 households	Monthly survey of ~122,000 businesses and government agencies, covering ~666,000 worksites
Employment Coverage	Includes: - Self-employed individuals - Unpaid family workers - Agricultural workers - Individuals on unpaid leave	Excludes the above groups (only agricultural workers are included)

The data from these surveys is used to calculate five key employment indicators:

Category	Key Metrics
Household Survey	- Unemployment Rate - Labor Force Participation Rate
Establishment Survey	- Non-Farm Payroll Employment - Average Hourly Earnings - Average Weekly Hours

Due to differences in methodology and data sources, employment figures from the Household and Establishment Surveys may sometimes show discrepancies.

3: Key Data in the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report

The four most closely watched data points in the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report are as follows:

• Non-Farm Payrolls (Establishment Survey)
• Unemployment Rate (Household Survey)
• Average Hourly Earnings (Establishment Survey)
• Labor Force Participation Rate (Household Survey)

Non-Farm Payrolls (Establishment Survey)

Non-Farm Payrolls refers to the number of employees working in the non-agricultural sectors of the economy (private businesses and government agencies).

An increase in payrolls usually indicates a rise in consumer spending, so changes in non-farm payrolls are seen as a key indicator of economic health.

Check the latest change in Non-Farm Payrolls

Unemployment Rate (Household Survey)

The Unemployment Rate represents the percentage of people who are willing and able to work but are currently unemployed.

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report breaks down the unemployment rate into six categories from "U-1" to "U-6," based on the severity of unemployment.

The unemployment rate most commonly cited in the NFP report is the U-3 data.

The official U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) and other unemployment categories are as follows:

Category	Summary	Definition
U-1	Long-term unemployment (15 weeks or more)	Percentage of the civilian labor force unemployed for 15 weeks or more (excluding military personnel)
U-2	Unemployed due to dismissal or contract expiration	Percentage of the civilian labor force unemployed due to being laid off or having temporary employment contracts end
U-3	Official unemployment rate	Percentage of the civilian labor force that is unemployed
U-4	U-3 + Discouraged workers	Percentage of the civilian labor force and discouraged workers who have given up looking for work
U-5	U-4 + Marginally attached workers	Percentage of the civilian labor force, discouraged workers, and other marginally attached workers
U-6	U-5 + Part-time workers seeking full-time work	Percentage of the civilian labor force, marginally attached workers, and people working part-time due to economic reasons

A decrease in the unemployment rate is generally seen as a sign of economic improvement.

Check the latest unemployment rate data

Average Hourly Earnings (Establishment Survey)

The Average Hourly Earnings data in the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report refers to the average wage rate for employees in non-agricultural industries, and it tracks any changes in wages.

An increase in average hourly earnings typically indicates higher labor costs, which can signal economic expansion and potential inflation trends.

Check the average hourly earnings change from last month

Labor Force Participation Rate (Household Survey)

The Labor Force Participation Rate represents the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or actively seeking employment.

When the unemployment rate decreases but the labor force participation rate also falls, it may indicate that more people have stopped looking for work due to a lack of available jobs, meaning the economy may not be improving as expected.

Conversely, when the unemployment rate increases and the labor force participation rate also rises, it could suggest that more people are re-entering the job market, indicating that the economy may be recovering from a recession.

4: Impact of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Forex and Stock Markets

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) provides deep insights into the U.S. economy and has a significant impact on both the forex and stock markets.

Impact on the Forex Market

Approximately 70% of the U.S. GDP comes from personal consumption, and employment data directly affects consumption levels.

When employment data is strong, the market expects economic growth, and the U.S. dollar typically appreciates. This is because strong employment data may drive inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates, making the dollar more attractive for investors seeking higher yields.

Conversely, weak employment data may lead the market to expect Fed rate cuts to stimulate the economy, weakening the dollar.

Impact on the Stock Market

Strong employment data is generally seen as a signal of economic health, leading to stock market rallies, especially in sectors like consumer, financial, and technology stocks. Consumer stocks benefit from increased income and consumption, while financial stocks thrive in a rising interest rate environment that boosts net interest income.

However, if the employment data is excessively strong, the market may worry about rising inflation pressures, which could prompt the Fed to adopt more aggressive rate hikes. This may increase corporate borrowing costs and squeeze profit margins, particularly for interest-sensitive sectors such as real estate and utilities.

If employment data is weak, the market may be concerned about an economic slowdown, leading to stock market declines. Cyclical sectors like industrials and energy are more affected by such data.

Weak data may also trigger expectations of Fed rate cuts, which typically benefit growth stocks, such as tech stocks, due to lower financing costs and improved valuations.

After the NFP data is released, market sentiment can change rapidly, leading to significant short-term fluctuations in the stock market.

If the data significantly exceeds expectations, stocks may rise, though inflation concerns could create headwinds; if the data falls short of expectations, stocks may drop, but expectations of rate cuts could lead to a quick rebound.

5: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Related Q&A

Common questions regarding U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls include:

• Q1: What is the "Yellen Dashboard"?
• Q2: Which agency releases the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls?
• Q3: Where can I find U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data?
• Q4: What is the relationship between Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate?

Q1: What is the "Yellen Dashboard"?

The Yellen Dashboard refers to a set of nine employment indicators that former Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen considered critical when formulating monetary policy:

Although Yellen is no longer the Fed Chair, these indicators remain important for the Federal Reserve when evaluating the employment market and economic conditions.

Q2: Which agency releases the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls?

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls is released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The BLS is a government agency responsible for ensuring workers' rights, improving labor conditions, and releasing employment and wage data.

Q3: Where can I find U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data?

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data can be found on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) website:

Current Employment Statistics – CES (National)

The data is generally released on the first Friday of each month, and the release times for the U.S. Eastern Time Zone are as follows:

• Daylight Saving Time (March - November): 08:30
• Standard Time (November - March): 08:30

Q4: What is the relationship between Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate?

The table below illustrates the relationship between Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate for better understanding:

Indicator	Non-Farm Payrolls	Unemployment Rate	Explanation
Definition	Change in employment in the non-agricultural sector.	Proportion of the workforce that is unemployed.	NFP reflects job growth, while the unemployment rate reflects unemployment conditions.
Data Source	Employer survey (Establishment Survey).	Household survey.	Different data sources may lead to discrepancies between the two.
Main Impact	Economic activity strength, business hiring needs.	Labor market supply and demand.	An increase in NFP usually lowers the unemployment rate, though labor force participation can influence the unemployment rate.
Reasons for Discrepancy	Reflects employment changes in the non-agricultural sector only.	Affected by labor force participation (entry or exit from the workforce).	For example, if more people enter the labor force but cannot find work, the unemployment rate may rise, while NFP remains unchanged.

6: Summary – What is U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls?

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls is a crucial economic indicator released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, reflecting the state of the U.S. employment market. It is considered an important reference for assessing the health of the U.S. economy.

As the report can significantly impact market expectations of the U.S. economy and the Fed's monetary policy, it has a substantial effect on the forex market, especially on the U.S. dollar's fluctuations.

Traders should closely monitor Non-Farm Payrolls data and market interpretations when engaging in forex trading to better understand market trends and devise trading strategies.